cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/45538468
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China’s NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] stood in sharp contrast to a complete withdrawal from the Paris Agreement by the world’s second-largest emitter and biggest historical emitter—the United States. China’s limited commitment coupled with this U.S. exit has caused many to doubt the viability of global climate progress under UN-led forums during a critical Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting in Brazil.
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China is the world’s largest emitter today, making up about a third of global emissions. The country overtook the United States in greenhouse gas emissions in 2006, and in the past decade, China’s emissions have only continued to climb. Since 2015, 90 percent of the world’s growth in emissions is traceable to China.
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But these commitments [to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10 percent below peak levels by 2035] fall short from what analysts forecast could keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris agreement. Research from nonprofit organization the Asia Society found that China would need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from peak emissions by 2035 to still align with the 1.5°C goal established under the Paris Agreement. Moreover, China does not specify when it will “peak” its emissions, leaving the country flexibility to increasing emissions in the next decade.
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What’s China’s NDC strategy?
Beijing could have chosen to under promise and over deliver on its global climate pledges. The Chinese government has historically followed this approach, achieving several of its past climate commitments ahead of schedule. Committing to less restrictive and ambitious NDCs grant China more flexibility in its economic, technological, and industrial development over the next decade.
In addition, Beijing is facing internal headwinds that could circumscribe climate ambition. For example, in February, China’s central government issued a directive for provinces to develop new pricing mechanisms plans for solar and wind power by the end of 2025. As of October, only about a half of the provinces had finalized the new rules.
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