no shit Sherlock
this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2025
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I love how there is all these AI companies telling everyone "we are over valued and you are all gonna lose everything" and "its a bubble" andf nobody is trying to fix it. Capitalism is the most efficient system.
It's a bubble and if it's gonna pop it will destroy the economy, THEREFORE you have to bail me out!
Geometric Intelligence is a research lab, not a company https://gi.ece.ucsb.edu/
An AI developer owned by Uber isn't a company? ok there.
I really hope its gonna tear it all apart. A man can hope.
seems inevitable, the only question is how long investors are willing to keep pouring money into the whole thing
By the looks of it they seem to be losing steam and willingness https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-stocks-head-more-1-173024886.html
I feel like these past couple of weeks might be a turning point. I think it all started with OpenAI basically saying they need a bailout and MS publishing their quarterly filings showing that they're spending billions on OpenAI. And now you see all the investors starting to panic.
I dunno. How do you figure that it will tear it all apart instead of just another bailout?
Even a bailout will be disastrous because it translates into another wealth transfer to the top. Each time this happens regular working class people end up getting pushed further towards the edge. When 2008 crash happens, people still had savings and a large chunk of the population could absorb the crisis. This time around most of the public is on much thinner margins, and the crash will be far more severe. If the consumption collapses in the US, the whole economy is going to come apart.
Good point. So to the best of your knowledge, what will happen and when?
Seems like it could be soon given that OpenAI is now openly angling for a bailout. The investors seem to be increasingly getting cold feet, so we could see a market panic sometime next year which would lead to the subsidies and bailouts. I've been wrong before though, and maybe they'll manage to kick the can further down the road somehow. I just can't see what options they have left at this point.
I think with orange pedo at the helm nothing is predictable at this point. Could be that he murders mamdani or that he gets jfked to hide the burst of the bubble. There are so many ways this could go.
Only one thing i'm certain of: ukraine is going down. Maybe venezuela war, maybe not. Maybe anexation of palestine, etc. So many avenues.
I'd argue more broadly we can be sure that the west has now entered terminal decline, and we're going to see a geopolitical realignment towards China going forward. There might be dying gasps like an attack on Venezuela or Iran, but none of that is going to arrest the decline or reverse it.
Yeah, that makes sense. I do agree that decline is getting more overt and i dont think it is reversable either but I dont know if it is as fast as it looks or if it will be a perpetual slow trainwreck like in britain where they starve their population, sabre rattle towards ireland and otherwise keep still as much as possible. For germany this would mean long lines at food banks, strong identification with israel and more police presence on the streets, maybe even outlawing of protests or curfew as with covid. I can see that happening. Germany always was a little more authoritarian than the rest while pointing fingers at erdogan.
Personally, I expect that things will keep getting worse in the west for a while yet. And material conditions for the vassals will be worse than in the core because the US will be sucking the life out of Europe, Japan, and occupied Korea to prop up its own economy. We're already seeing this happening with the "deals" that Trump rammed through. That all might lead to revolutionary conditions, but seems like that's quite far away at this point. Naked fascism seems like the most likely next stage to me.
I'd say austerity for at least a couple years with massive spending towards the us and military. I dont think we will see fascism again as it was back then. Its probably more a toned down, stupider version like the us.
It's hard to say. I don't think anybody expected 1930s style fascism before it got into motion either. These things can take on a life of their own very quickly. What we'll see is that repression is going to increase in response to public discontent. We already see this happening both in the US and the EU. We're seeing militarization of police, mass surveillance, bans on political speech, widespread censorship, and so on. All of that will continue to be cranked up, and that's how you end up with full blown fascism in the end. The US is just at the start of the road, it's going to keep getting worse with each and every year. Europe is sure to follow.
Thats an interesting yet harrowing perspective. It feels like the US is already becoming kind of unruly as the people start protesting en masse.
Germany didnt protest hitler. They loved him. There are many interviews from before and after where people were frenetically in love with him. The us back then had its own dictator with near totalitarian power and nobody was against that either. They even had concentration camps with japanese people in it.
I think its very different know. We cant say people are terribly resolute but the mere flow of information is manyfold and the reaction albeit being disorganized or misguided is there.
Maybe some history buffs can fill in the blanks here?
I'm skeptical that access to information plays that big of a role in practice. What we see is that people just form online bubbles along with other people who have similar beliefs. Take the whole flat earth movement as an example, clearly the abundance of information to the contrary isn't preventing people from believing nonsense. And that's one of the more extremely absurd beliefs, it's much easier for people to believe things like immigrants stealing jobs, or that entrepreneurs are needed for innovation, and so on. Meanwhile, MAGA is basically a cult around Trump, his support hasn't really fallen amongst them even despite the economic damage his trade war is doing.
It'd be interesting to see more perspectives on this from people who know history better, but I see a lot of the same mechanics playing out today as at the start of the 20th century.
I think there is a fallacy at play here.
Flat earthers are very few which not really escape but decide not to believe in science while palestine for example is something that would have and has gone differently just because the information wasnt as abundand. Now we have thousands upon thousands of websites, profiles, people, messages, etc that depict the genocide in 4k.
So our core audience for flat earth is enormously different from the palestine issue.
This means that on average people will definitely and massively benefit from the information abundance but of course some will - same as flat earthers - not be convinced, no matter the evidence.
But we cant discount the rule for the exception. It took me half an hour by the way to find the name of the fallacy that seems to be coming up rn. "Exception fallacy" is discounting a rule "abundance of information makes a huge difference to past situations of this nature" for its exceptions "the flat earthers still dont listen."
My point is that people tend to pick and choose what they believe. A flat earther is not a unique kind of irrational actor, but simply the most visible example of a cognitive process we all engage in. The reason debates over Palestine, Ukraine, or China's Xinjiang region persist despite overwhelming evidence isn't a lack of information, but due to the fact that our minds have a tendency to protect our existing worldviews.
What we're really talking about here are the fundamental mechanics of belief formation. I'd argue that it ultimately comes down to thermodynamics. Our minds are constantly bombarded with an infinite stream of contradictory information. To avoid cognitive overload, we use our existing belief system as a filter. Accepting a fact that fits neatly into our current model is energetically cheap. It slots right in. But accepting a fact that contradicts our core beliefs is metabolically expensive. It forces a painful restructuring of our entire mental framework which we'd rather not do.
Incidentally, this is precisely why the liberal ideal of "just educate people better" is a such a profound failure. It assumes people are empty vessels waiting to be filled with facts, when in reality, we are architects constantly fortifying the cognitive structures we already inhabit. Presenting contrary evidence often just makes people double down, because rebuilding the house is more costly than throwing out a single brick that doesn't fit.
Its also catastrophically inflaming given people are much more riled up right now and more "class aware" (not conscious though)
Exactly, the public now knows they're getting fucked, and they are angry.
I expect a war with China or Russia, likely both along Iran if they havent done anything about it until then, when that happens.
I would argue that a direct war with Russia or China is actually less likely now after they failed against Iran. They're arrogant but they're not suicidal. They don't want to go after someone strong, they want an easy victory against someone weak, which is why they are looking at Venezuela.
Right now but desperation will set in soon and burning it all down to prevent others from "inheriting the world" will become a real possibility for the empire.
I don't see how that works just from material perspective alone. Russia is singlehandedly outproducing all of NATO militarily. China has orders of magnitude bigger industry. We've also seen that the west is entirely dependent on critical inputs from China like rare earths without which all high tech manufacturing here stops, including military production. Finally, Both Russia and China are nuclear superpowers, so any direct conflict would be suicidal.
Exactly my point. Conquering the Soviet Union was suicidal by the Nazis but they still did it because fascism demanded it.
I can't argue with that, the biggest worry is that the empire will just decide to go out with a bang and start a nuclear holocaust. My hope is that the oligarchs would rather rule over a diminished empire than live the rest of their lives out in a bunker like rats.
I found a YouTube link in your post. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: