this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2025

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Unpopular Opinion

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If Musk manages to fulfill the terms of his contract, he deserves the $1 trillion payout. (lemmy.world)

submitted 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) by shalafi@lemmy.world to c/unpopularopinion@lemmy.world

32 comments fedilink hide all child comments

(copied the lead on yesterday's comment)

This agreement spans a decade BTW, not next year's paycheck, $90,000,000/yr. Obscene? Yes, but here's the rub...

The full compensation would only be delivered if Musk vaults the company from its present value of $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion...

You've got to be fucking kidding me. Is that an actual expectation or is it, "Fuck him, won't have to pay."?

"Tell you what Elon, push the company to the most valuable of all time and by a monstrous margin, we'll pay ya. 10 years buddy! You're on the clock!"

Even NVIDIA, the most wildly overvalued company in history is "only" at 5-trillion, and that's a bubble. I know it. You know it. They know it.

The compensation package also includes a set of production goals, including one million Robotaxis in commercial operation and the delivery of one million humanoid robots over the next 10 years, according to the securities filing.

One million Robotaxies?! A cursory Google search shows Waymo with a paltry 2,000 in operation. Another quick search shows 393,400 taxi and shuttle drivers in the entire United States. I know, there's a whole 'nother world out there, but Europe is not going for Elon's death traps. Other countries? Dunno. Also note, that's one million in operation, not parked at your local mall like excess Cybertrucks.

One million humanoid robots?! And who is going to be buying these and for what purpose? Sure, some rich people will get a few on a lark, just a toy, but no way these things become cheap and useful enough for mass deployment in a decade. Again, sold and delivered, not merely manufactured.

In my opinion, the AI bubble is going to pop and we'll be in worse shape than the Great Depression, at best this will be the worst economy any of us have ever lived. (Look up the "Buffett Index".) Who is going to be paying taxi fares and buying robots?! With what money?

That's just three of the goals he must meet, who knows what else is in there. Bet there are clauses concerning TSLA stock price, another bubble. Knowing his track record on delivery, think any of this pans out? It's almost like the board is making fun of him. "You go genius boy! We know you can do it!"

So yeah, if he manages to hit these terms in a decade, he deserves $1T, no shit. Anybody want to give me a cool trillion if I can manage to eat a whole skyscraper in the next decade?

all 33 comments

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[–] njm1314@lemmy.world 13 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

First of all the only thing he deserves is a brutal in public execution.

However not only will he not fulfill the terms of it, he was never supposed to. Part of the agreement is that the board has the ability to waive all the terms of the agreement. The board that basically does anything he wants whenever he tells them to.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

Need a source on "the board has the ability to waive all the terms of the agreement". Contracts are no longer valid?

[–] sobchak@programming.dev 8 points 3 days ago (1 children)

It'd be mostly the workers that fulfill the contract; Musk doesn't really do anything.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

Did you read the terms? Do you think any amount of labor will bring this to fruition?

[–] Adulated_Aspersion@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago (1 children)

1 Trillion dollars is NOT $90,000,000 per year for 10 years.

1 Trillion dollars is $100,000,000,000 per year for 10 years.

A million dollars ($1,000,000) is a life altering amount of money for normal people.

Under this Payout, Elon Musk would earn.....

$1,000,000,000,000 in 10 years
$100,000,000,000 every year
~$8,300,000,000 per month (that's 8 billion per month)
~$1,923,076,923 per week (2 billion per week)
~$273,972,602 per day (that is 273 million)
~$11,415,525 per hour
~$190,258 per minute
~$3,170 per second

So, under this pay, he would earn a life altering amount of money in literally 5 minutes.

[–] zipzoopaboop@lemmynsfw.com 7 points 3 days ago (1 children)

"earn"

[–] Adulated_Aspersion@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

Fair point.

Bleed might be a better term. Leach?

[–] rbesfe@lemmy.ca 12 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Up voted for being genuinely unpopular. Don't let this community turn into the subreddit

[–] CameronDev@programming.dev 17 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Here's a conspiracy theory: He will miss the targets, but then legally(or otherwise) bully his way into getting the payout anyway. Shareholders are gonna get screwed.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

That's what I've been wondering about! Is he narcissistic enough to truly believe he can hit these goals? Or does he have a fallback plan to sue his way out of it?

People will comment that he's narcissistic enough, but he's not Trump's level of narcissistic, not even close. Plus, he's smarter, which ain't sayin' much, so he's gotta know this won't fly.

Maybe it's not about scoring the whole trillion, but pumping his net worth up to that number? No idea how the payout works as the years go by and goals are unmet.

[–] m0darn@lemmy.ca 7 points 4 days ago

Is the stock price target in straight USD? What if he conspires to devalue the dollar to achieve the stock price? I guess the production requirements block that?

[–] xxce2AAb@feddit.dk 14 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

I suppose there's no denying you've made a truly excellent submission.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago

Bunch of people will downvote the headline and move on. The whole situation is so ludicrous I've been having a giggle.

[–] Zwuzelmaus@feddit.org 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

You are talking too much about Musk.

He does not deserve it. And that's just one of many things he does not deserve.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world -1 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Didn't read a bit of that, did you?

[–] CorvusGhost@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago

The bots have to downvote him, or they get deleted.

[–] Zwuzelmaus@feddit.org 0 points 4 days ago

Oh yes, a bit. Enough. Maybe too much.

[–] Two_Hangmen@midwest.social 4 points 4 days ago

So right now I'm seeing 8 down votes. Do people think this is actually a popular opinion? Or is it like reddit and people don't understand what this sub is?

[–] Fizz@lemmy.nz 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

The CEO is paid out a % according to the preformance of the company, thats fair. However elon is also a major shareholder and has a vested interest in the value increasing.

This is not him negotiating a fair pay structure for set goals this is him holding the investors at gun point saying you must promise me a greater than normal share of the profit or this or this entire house of cards falls.

What he is promising is not realistic and everyone knows this which is why he is doing this in the way he is.

[–] golli@sopuli.xyz 3 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

That's my main problem as well. He is also constantly in a conflict of interest with his other companies, particularly xAI.

If Tesla were to ever reach those insane valuations, they'd have to succeed (and dominate) in fields like self driving, robotics/automation and ai. Fields that xAI is also pursuing or could possibly expand into.

Elon has a stake in Tesla, but he holds more percentage wise in xAI and even increased his stake there when he made them buy X for an imo very unrealistic valuation. It's exactly like you say, he is and will continue to pit these companies against each other (and maybe start new ones) to increase his share.

I think he's also exploiting that somehow a lot of the valuation still seems to hang on him, although particularly in the case of Tesla I don't know what he has done for the company in recent years (if he'd have developed xAI inside the company we could maybe talk, but he purposely did that outside because he wanted more ownership stake).

Berkshire Hathaway would kind of be the antithesis to this I think. If I understand it correctly they barely pay their directors, but instead they simply hold quite a bit of shares, so doing well for the company also benefits them.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

You kinda lost me. I'm saying the terms of the contract are absolutely impossible to fulfill.

[–] ccunning@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Am I supposed to downvote or upvote if I agree?

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

Upvote if you think it's an unpopular opinion around here. Up and downvote comments as you see fit.

[–] Fizz@lemmy.nz -4 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Downvote.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 6 points 4 days ago

Don't mind if I do!

[–] Bell@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

A share of TSLA in 2018 was $19, today that one share is worth over $6000. The compensation agreement has crazy goals but the performance of the stock so far has been amazing.

[–] EndlessNightmare@reddthat.com 0 points 3 days ago (1 children)

2018 to now is more like a 20x gain, not a 300x gain. Still a very impressive gain, but off by about x15.

[–] Bell@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The stock split twice

[–] EndlessNightmare@reddthat.com 1 points 2 days ago

Backtest calculators account for this, along with dividends.

[–] PP_BOY_@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

Been saying this in threads since the news came out. It's a Hail Mary from the board and sure, if he can do the impossible then fuck it, why not?

[–] MotoAsh@piefed.social 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Obviously it's not unpopular or it wouldn't have been approved. They have a Feduciary Duty™ to make the most fiscally responsible choices.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago

Kinda hilarious the board said, "You pull this insane stunt off, multiple insane stunts, we'll give you insane money." So I guess this was a fiscally responsible choice?