this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
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1 of 2 things will need to happen for the shortage to be resolved.
I believe 2 will happen before 1 because 1 will take several years to happen.
If we're lucky, maybe there's a sweet spot where new production for RAM ramps up just as the AI companies run out of money and cancel their orders, and then there's suddenly a huge surplus of RAM that they need to unload in a hurry lol.
Gamers Nexus made a video recently where they were discussing a new Chinese company/manufacturer in the RAM game. It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.
For your second point/option: I agree something like this will happen first. But I don’t know if it will be a cancellation on all “fronts.” Microsoft’s CEO stated they HAVE the (DIM) RAM, but they DON’T have the GPU’s. So Nvidia is behind on manufacturing, but Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have actually got the stock, they’re just ONLY selling to corporations right now (or arbitrarily inflating prices for consumers to meet the inflated price they’re selling to corporations who already have more than they need, but refuse to stop buying).
CXMT, the difference is negligible.
That's just a more handwavy version of 1. Unless you are saying that new technology will come along that will make existing fabrication facilities capable of higher throughput without substantial upgrades/expansions to those facilities? It seems unlikely to happen any sooner than 1 does either way, unless there is a high readiness level technology that's going to massively disrupt the established field of industrial engineering in the next year that I haven't heard anything about
Then the current companies buying it will just buy more. So far there isn't significant movement in the space to try and do more with less, and the current strategy is to just keep throwing more resources at it.
I'm not sure there's a point where production could eclipse corporate orders with the current path things appear to be on.
The Chinese could do some coordinated push to take marketshare if they have state backing and are willing to accept medium term losses.
But then every western government will not allow the import of those products because of "national security"
I would by some backdoored Chinese RAM right about now. I have nothing to hide. if it comes without US five eyes backdoors, all the better.
What's your bank account number?
I expect that China is likely investing in 1 due to industrial policy. When 2 happens, it is going to collapse the industry.
It will likely be a combination of both. As prices increase, new fabs become more financially lucrative and viable. Demand will also fall as the bubble bursts, but likely will not go back to that it was either.
Agreed. They are building new factories now that will come online in several years
Who are "they"? The current crisis is not due to Samsung, SK Hynix or Micron having capacity issues. They don't want to up their production currently as they plan for the AI bubble to burst and sitting on product when that happens will be costly.
CXMT is already making RAM.
https://www.cxmt.com/en/product.html
https://www.techspot.com/review/3089-ddr5-made-in-china/
Might have to sneak it through Canada.